UTC Cajamarca
vs
Sporting Cristal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Cristal
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
| Probability | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.1% | 22.2% | 57.6% |
| Market | 25.6% | 26.0% | 48.4% |
| Final | 24.2% | 25.0% | 50.7% |
| Edge | -5.5% | -3.7% | +9.2% |
Why Sporting Cristal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sporting Cristal below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal match preview
UTC Cajamarca faces Sporting Cristal in the Peru Primera División with a kickoff time set for October 11, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 24% for UTC Cajamarca, 25% for a draw, and 51% for Sporting Cristal. The expected goals are 1.22 for UTC Cajamarca and 2.15 for Sporting Cristal, suggesting a competitive match with a likely scoreline of 1-2, which has a 10% probability.
Recent form shows UTC Cajamarca struggling with six consecutive losses, while Sporting Cristal has had a mixed run, winning three of their last six matches. The model indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score, highlighting potential for an engaging encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal attack and defence ratings
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- UCV Moquegua v Cienciano — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
- ADT vs FC Cajamarca — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College — team news & stats
- Universitario vs FBC Melgar
- Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico — match page
- Cusco v Alianza Lima — match page
Before and after this match
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 50.7% | 1.97 | +9.2% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 24.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Sporting Cristal | 50.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 36.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 42.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.9% |
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal stats
UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal recent form
| UTC Cajamarca |
LLLLLL |
| Sporting Cristal |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal season so far
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Sporting Cristal | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Sporting Cristal | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-06 | UTC Cajamarca | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.6%, draw 26.0%, away 48.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.51 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Marathonbet | 3.64 | 3.54 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.59 | 3.61 | 1.91 |
| SBO | 3.11 | 3.11 | 1.90 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .