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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 11

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

0 – 1 Full time

12′Luis Iberico
20′Gilmar Paredes
31′Santiago González
51′Arquímedes Figuera
56′Manuel Ganoza
57′Jhosep NunezAdolfo Muñoz
65′Joshua CanttAbdiel Arroyo
69′Maxloren CastroLuis Abram
69′Luis IbericoGabriel
72′Michael Hoyos
74′Yoshimar YotúnMartín Távara
74′Michael HoyosHernán Barcos
77′Santiago GonzálezJuan Manuel Cuesta
82′Gilmar Paredes
84′Marlon de JesúsSantiago Gálvez

Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, CajamarcaReferee: Jordi Espinoza

UTC Cajamarca 24%
Draw 25%
Sporting Cristal 51%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
5 Corners 5
15 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
314 Accurate passes 351

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUTC CajamarcaDrawSporting Cristal
Model20.0%22.2%57.8%
Market25.8%25.8%48.4%
Final24.3%24.9%50.8%
Edge-1.4%-0.9%+2.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sporting Cristal

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.22.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sporting Cristal below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

UTC Cajamarca ↓ / Sporting Crist → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 6% 5% 1 10% 10% 7% 6% 2 5% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal expected goals

UTC Cajamarca 1.22
Sporting Cristal 2.16

Total expected goals: 3.38

UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal attack and defence ratings

UTC Cajamarca

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.56 +56%

Sporting Cristal

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal: result vs prediction

UTC Cajamarca 0 – 1 Sporting Cristal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting Cristal 50.8% 1.97 +2.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.6% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.3% 1.58 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.2% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2UTC Cajamarca24.3%
Draw24.9%
Sporting Cristal50.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%
Both teams to scoreYes63.3%
No36.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.2%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)75.7%
Handicap -1Sporting Cristal win36.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss42.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.9%
1-29.7%
0-27.9%

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal stats

UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal recent form

newest first
UTC Cajamarca LLLLLL
Sporting Cristal WWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal going into this match

league record before kick-off

UTC Cajamarca record

  • They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Sporting Cristal record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1UTC Cajamarca wins 3Draws 6Sporting Cristal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19Sporting CristalUTC CajamarcaPeru Primera División3-2
2025-08-23Sporting CristalUTC CajamarcaPeru Primera División2-2
2025-04-06UTC CajamarcaSporting CristalPeru Primera División4-1
2024-08-25Sporting CristalUTC CajamarcaPrimera División4-0
2024-03-31UTC CajamarcaSporting CristalPrimera División1-2
2023-09-26Sporting CristalUTC CajamarcaPrimera División1-1
2023-05-07UTC CajamarcaSporting CristalPrimera División1-1
2022-07-26UTC CajamarcaSporting CristalPrimera División0-2
2022-02-25Sporting CristalUTC CajamarcaPrimera División3-2
2021-09-17UTC CajamarcaSporting CristalPrimera División1-6

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.8%, draw 25.8%, away 48.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.51 3.60 1.95
Bet365 3.70 3.60 1.90
BetVictor 3.60 3.60 1.90
Betano 3.85 3.75 2.00
Betfair 3.30 3.60 1.90
Dafabet 3.65 3.70 1.98
Marathonbet 3.64 3.54 1.89
Pinnacle 3.61 3.57 1.92
SBO 3.18 3.19 1.92
William Hill 3.50 3.40 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.60 ▼ -0.40
X 3.60 —
2 1.92 ▲ +0.11

26 snapshots recorded, from .