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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 10

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys

1 – 1 Full time

24′Marcos PortilloHoracio Orzan
41′Johnny Vidales
45′Christian Cueva
45′Hernán Da Campo
46′Carlos Zambrano
60′Matias ZegarraNicolas Quagliata
74′Kevin MindaLautaro Guzmán
74′Johnny VidalesJefferson Caceres
76′Jostin AlarconYuriel Celi
76′Christian CuevaRolando Diaz
89′Carlos ZambranoGustavo Dulanto
90′Luis UrrutiFederico Illanes
90′Hernán Da CampoRenzo Alfani
90′Rolando Diaz

Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, ArequipaReferee: Kevin Ortega

FBC Melgar 59%
Draw 25%
Sport Boys 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

25 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 1
64 Possession % 36
12 Corners 3
8 Fouls 9
0 Saves 6
456 Accurate passes 214

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFBC MelgarDrawSport Boys
Model45.8%32.9%21.3%
Market63.8%21.9%14.3%
Final59.3%24.7%16.1%
Edge-18.0%+11.0%+7.0%

Confidence: Low

Why FBC Melgar

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.73.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FBC Melgar ↓ / Sport Boys → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 9% 1 16% 14% 2 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

FBC Melgar and Sport Boys expected goals

FBC Melgar 1.20
Sport Boys 0.73

Total expected goals: 1.93

FBC Melgar and Sport Boys attack and defence ratings

FBC Melgar

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Sport Boys

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys: result vs prediction

FBC Melgar 1 – 1 Sport Boys

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FBC Melgar 59.3% 1.69 -18.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.6% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score No 62.5% 1.60 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.9% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.1% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FBC Melgar59.3%
Draw24.7%
Sport Boys16.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.4%
Under 2.569.6%
Both teams to scoreYes37.5%
No62.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.9%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)40.7%
Handicap -1FBC Melgar win20.9%
Push (exactly one goal)25.0%
Loss54.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.1%
0-015.8%
1-114.0%

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys stats

FBC Melgar and Sport Boys recent form

newest first
FBC Melgar WWLDWL
Sport Boys WLWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FBC Melgar and Sport Boys going into this match

league record before kick-off

FBC Melgar record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sport Boys record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

9FBC Melgar wins 0Draws 1Sport Boys wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-15Sport BoysFBC MelgarPeru Primera División1-3
2025-10-20Sport BoysFBC MelgarPeru Primera División1-0
2025-06-14FBC MelgarSport BoysPeru Primera División2-1
2024-10-18Sport BoysFBC MelgarPrimera División0-2
2024-05-05FBC MelgarSport BoysPrimera División2-1
2023-07-31Sport BoysFBC MelgarPrimera División0-2
2023-05-12FBC MelgarSport BoysPrimera División2-0
2022-10-19FBC MelgarSport BoysPrimera División3-0
2022-06-19Sport BoysFBC MelgarPrimera División0-1
2021-09-26FBC MelgarSport BoysPrimera División1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.9%, draw 21.9%, away 14.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 4.20 6.49
Bet365 1.50 3.80 6.50
BetVictor 1.44 4.20 6.50
Betano 1.45 4.80 7.90
Betfair 1.33 4.40 7.50
Marathonbet 1.44 4.20 6.40
Pinnacle 1.47 4.27 6.13
SBO 1.34 3.95 6.18
William Hill 1.44 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.06
X 4.20 ▲ +0.30
2 6.45 ▲ +0.33

13 snapshots recorded, from .