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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos

2 – 1 Full time

10′Jean Olivares
19′Jairo Molina
25′Agustín Rodríguez
33′Agustín Rodríguez
56′Cristian Penilla
57′Matías Eric Sen
67′Jean OlivaresWilter Ayovi
67′Jhon SánchezÓscar Pinto
68′Guillermo LariosAriel Muñoz
77′Alexis AriasThiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar
85′Jairo MolinaValentin Robaldo
86′Jose Antonio·ParodiYimy Gamero
90′Ariel Muñoz
90′Jorge del CastilloWilliams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
90′Cristian PenillaChristian Valladolid

Estadio Campeones del 36, SullanaReferee: Sebastian Lozano

Alianza Atletico 57%
Draw 24%
Comerciantes Unidos 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

25 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 4
68 Possession % 32
10 Corners 3
11 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0
3 Saves 3
278 Accurate passes 100

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlianza AtleticoDrawComerciantes Unidos
Model58.6%21.4%19.9%
Market56.2%25.1%18.7%
Final56.8%24.2%19.0%
Edge+2.4%-3.6%+1.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Alianza Atletico

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.27.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Alianza Atletico below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alianza Atleti ↓ / Comerciantes U → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 5% 2 7% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Alianza Atletico and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals

Alianza Atletico 2.25
Comerciantes Unidos 1.27

Total expected goals: 3.53

Alianza Atletico and Comerciantes Unidos attack and defence ratings

Alianza Atletico

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Comerciantes Unidos

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos: result vs prediction

Alianza Atletico 2 – 1 Comerciantes Unidos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alianza Atletico 56.8% 1.76 +2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.4% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.3% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.0% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.4% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alianza Atletico56.8%
Draw24.2%
Comerciantes Unidos19.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.4%
Under 2.531.6%
Both teams to scoreYes65.3%
No34.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.0%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)43.2%
Handicap -1Alianza Atletico win37.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss41.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.5%
1-19.3%
2-07.5%

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos stats

Alianza Atletico and Comerciantes Unidos recent form

newest first
Alianza Atletico LWWWDW
Comerciantes Unidos LDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alianza Atletico and Comerciantes Unidos going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alianza Atletico record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Comerciantes Unidos record

  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Alianza Atletico wins 1Draws 4Comerciantes Unidos wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-22Comerciantes UnidosAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División1-0
2025-10-18Comerciantes UnidosAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División1-0
2025-06-12Alianza AtleticoComerciantes UnidosPeru Primera División3-0
2024-09-23Alianza AtleticoComerciantes UnidosPrimera División1-0
2024-04-23Comerciantes UnidosAlianza AtleticoPrimera División0-0
2020-12-11Alianza AtleticoComerciantes UnidosSegunda División1-2
2019-11-10Alianza AtleticoComerciantes UnidosSegunda División4-1
2019-08-23Comerciantes UnidosAlianza AtleticoSegunda División3-1
2017-10-15Alianza AtleticoComerciantes UnidosPrimera División3-2
2017-07-05Comerciantes UnidosAlianza AtleticoPrimera División0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.2%, draw 25.1%, away 18.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.65 3.70 4.93
Bet365 1.65 3.70 5.00
BetVictor 1.65 3.70 4.80
Betano 1.70 3.95 5.50
Betfair 1.60 3.75 4.75
Marathonbet 1.63 3.70 4.95
Pinnacle 1.56 3.94 5.41
SBO 1.54 3.40 4.50
William Hill 1.65 3.50 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 ▼ -0.12
X 3.70 ▲ +0.25
2 4.95 ▲ +0.55

11 snapshots recorded, from .