UTC Cajamarca
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.07.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Probability | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.3% | 23.0% | 58.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 18.3% | 23.0% | 58.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Deportivo Garcilaso
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso match preview
UTC Cajamarca faces Deportivo Garcilaso in a match where the probabilities indicate a stronger likelihood of a win for the visitors, with Deportivo Garcilaso at 54% compared to UTC Cajamarca's 21%. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with UTC Cajamarca projected to score 1.05 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso 1.81. The most likely scoreline from the model is 1-2, occurring with a 10% probability.
Recent form shows UTC Cajamarca struggling, having lost their last six matches, while Deportivo Garcilaso has shown some resilience with two wins in their last three games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 55%, and both teams scoring is projected at 56%, indicating a potentially high-scoring match. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso attack and defence ratings
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Cusco vs Sport Boys
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page
Before and after this match
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 18.3% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 58.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win | 36.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
| UTC Cajamarca |
LLLLLL |
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
WLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso season so far
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Deportivo Garcilaso | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Deportivo Garcilaso | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-03 | UTC Cajamarca | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.