Alianza Lima
vs
FC Cajamarca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Lima
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alianza Lima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
| Probability | Alianza Lima | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.3% | 15.6% | 8.1% |
| Market | 73.2% | 16.1% | 10.7% |
| Final | 74.0% | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.1% | -0.6% |
Why Alianza Lima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 74.0% × 1.28 − 1).
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca match preview
Alianza Lima enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while FC Cajamarca has a significantly lower chance at 10%. The expected goals for Alianza Lima stand at 2.68, indicating a robust attacking performance, whereas FC Cajamarca is projected to score only 0.81 goals. Recent form shows Alianza Lima's positive trajectory with four wins in their last six matches, contrasting with FC Cajamarca, who have struggled with only one win in their last six outings.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0 in favor of Alianza Lima, occurring with an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score with a 52% likelihood. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats
- Cusco vs ADT — team news & stats
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page
Before and after this match
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.8% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 74.0% |
| Draw | 16.0% | |
| FC Cajamarca | 10.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win | 56.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 23.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 3-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca stats
Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca recent form
| Alianza Lima |
DWLWWW |
| FC Cajamarca |
WLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca season so far
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 20 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
FC Cajamarca record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | FC Cajamarca | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.2%, draw 16.1%, away 10.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 5.90 | 9.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.25 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.30 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.23 | 5.90 | 9.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 6.36 | 8.56 |
| SBO | 1.20 | 5.13 | 7.53 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .