Cusco
vs
ADT
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cusco
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.92.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cusco is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cusco vs ADT overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cusco vs ADT
| Probability | Cusco | Draw | ADT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 27.3% | 20.3% |
| Market | 61.2% | 22.1% | 16.7% |
| Final | 59.0% | 23.4% | 17.6% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +1.3% | +0.9% |
Why Cusco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 59.0% × 1.53 − 1).
Cusco vs ADT match preview
Cusco enters this match against ADT with a probability of winning set at 59%, while ADT has an 18% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Cusco, which has a 12% probability. Expected goals for Cusco are at 1.61, compared to ADT's 0.92.
In terms of recent form, Cusco has struggled with two losses in their last three matches, while ADT has recorded three draws in their last five games. Historically, Cusco has dominated their encounters with ADT, winning five out of the last seven meetings, with no draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cusco and ADT expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Cusco and ADT attack and defence ratings
Cusco
ADT
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
- Alianza Lima v FC Cajamarca — match page
- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page
Before and after this match
Cusco vs ADT markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 59.0% | 1.69 | -2.2% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 59.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| ADT | 17.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Cusco vs ADT stats
Cusco and ADT recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cusco and ADT season so far
Cusco record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 10 penalties (60%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ADT record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cusco vs ADT head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | ADT | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-23 | Cusco | ADT | Peru Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-28 | ADT | Cusco | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-17 | ADT | Cusco | Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-15 | Cusco | ADT | Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2023-09-02 | Cusco | ADT | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-16 | ADT | Cusco | Primera División | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cusco vs ADT odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 22.1%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.15 | 5.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.15 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.31 | 5.69 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 3.73 | 5.22 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .