Sporting Cristal
vs
Cienciano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Cristal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.92.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
| Probability | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.9% | 16.9% | 10.2% |
| Market | 60.7% | 22.2% | 17.0% |
| Final | 63.8% | 20.9% | 15.3% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -1.3% | -1.7% |
Why Sporting Cristal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sporting Cristal below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (our 63.8% × 1.54 − 1).
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano match preview
Sporting Cristal is favored to win their upcoming match against Cienciano, with a probability of 64%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 10%. Sporting Cristal has shown solid recent form with three wins in their last six matches, while Cienciano has experienced mixed results, securing three wins but also suffering three losses in the same timeframe.
The expected goals for Sporting Cristal stand at 2.61, compared to Cienciano's 0.92, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. Additionally, there is a 69% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are predicted to score at a rate of 57%. In their last ten encounters, Sporting Cristal has won five times, while Cienciano has claimed three victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Cristal and Cienciano expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Sporting Cristal and Cienciano attack and defence ratings
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Alianza Lima v FC Cajamarca — match page
- Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — team news & stats
- Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar — match page
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys
- Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
- UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — team news & stats
- Cusco vs ADT — team news & stats
- UCV Moquegua v Atletico Grau — match page
Before and after this match
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 63.8% | 1.57 | +3.0% | 1.54 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 63.8% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Cienciano | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win | 52.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 27.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-0 | 8.7% |
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano stats
Sporting Cristal and Cienciano recent form
| Sporting Cristal |
DWWLWW |
| Cienciano |
LLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Cristal and Cienciano season so far
Sporting Cristal record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Cienciano record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Cienciano | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Sporting Cristal | Cienciano | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Cienciano | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-27 | Sporting Cristal | Cienciano | Primera División | 5-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | Cienciano | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-23 | Cienciano | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-02 | Sporting Cristal | Cienciano | Primera División | 4-2 |
| 2022-09-11 | Sporting Cristal | Cienciano | Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2022-04-23 | Cienciano | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-01 | Cienciano | Sporting Cristal | Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.7%, draw 22.2%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.15 | 5.39 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.15 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.25 | 5.34 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.87 | 4.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .