Juan Pablo II College
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juan Pablo II College
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.27.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Probability | Juan Pablo II College | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.2% | 26.2% | 27.7% |
| Market | 35.0% | 28.3% | 36.7% |
| Final | 37.8% | 27.8% | 34.4% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.5% | -2.3% |
Why Juan Pablo II College
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.27.
- The market prices Juan Pablo II College below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (our 37.8% × 2.75 − 1).
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso match preview
In the upcoming match between Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso, both teams are given equal chances of winning, with probabilities of 36% for each side and a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Juan Pablo II College projected to score 1.69 and Deportivo Garcilaso 1.27. Our model indicates a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Juan Pablo II College, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form shows Juan Pablo II College with a mixed record of L-L-W-L-W-D, while Deportivo Garcilaso has struggled, recording D-W-L-W-L-L in their last six matches. Historically, Deportivo Garcilaso has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of the last matches against Juan Pablo II College. The model suggests a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso attack and defence ratings
Juan Pablo II College
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juan Pablo II College | 37.8% | 2.65 | +2.8% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juan Pablo II College | 37.8% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juan Pablo II College win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats
Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
| Juan Pablo II College |
LLWLWD |
| Deportivo Garcilaso |
DWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso season so far
Juan Pablo II College record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Garcilaso record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Juan Pablo II College | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 28.3%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.33 | 2.62 |
| SBO | 2.49 | 3.02 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .