UCV Moquegua
vs
Atletico Grau
Garuda Lions Prediction: UCV Moquegua
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — UCV Moquegua is the favourite, not a value bet.
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau
| Probability | UCV Moquegua | Draw | Atletico Grau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.3% | 32.3% | 34.4% |
| Market | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% |
| Final | 54.9% | 25.3% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -7.2% | +2.3% | +4.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.5% per unit staked (our 54.9% × 1.52 − 1).
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau match preview
In the upcoming match between UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau, UCV Moquegua has a 55% probability of winning, while Atletico Grau stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of UCV Moquegua, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with UCV Moquegua recording two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Atletico Grau has one win, two losses, and three draws.
The expected goals for UCV Moquegua is 1.06, slightly lower than Atletico Grau's 1.08. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%, and there is a 44% chance that both teams will score. In their last head-to-head encounter, Atletico Grau secured a victory, with UCV Moquegua yet to record a win against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau attack and defence ratings
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCV Moquegua | 54.9% | 1.82 | -7.2% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCV Moquegua | 54.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Atletico Grau | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.5% |
| No | 55.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | UCV Moquegua win | 13.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 66.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau stats
UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau recent form
| UCV Moquegua |
DDLLWL |
| Atletico Grau |
WLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau season so far
UCV Moquegua record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
Atletico Grau record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Atletico Grau | UCV Moquegua | Peru Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.1%, draw 23.0%, away 14.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.05 | 6.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 3.70 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.05 | 6.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.06 | 6.19 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.52 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .