FC Cajamarca
vs
Alianza Atletico
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cajamarca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Cajamarca is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico
| Probability | FC Cajamarca | Draw | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 20.7% | 48.1% |
| Market | 39.6% | 27.6% | 32.8% |
| Final | 37.5% | 25.9% | 36.6% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -1.7% | +3.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.38 − 1).
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico match preview
FC Cajamarca faces Alianza Atletico in their upcoming match, with both teams having equal probabilities of winning at 37%. Cajamarca has struggled recently, recording four losses and a draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Alianza Atletico has shown stronger form, winning four of their last six games. The expected goals for FC Cajamarca stand at 1.94, while Alianza Atletico is projected to score 2.39, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Alianza Atletico, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% likelihood of both teams scoring. The previous head-to-head match ended in a draw, with FC Cajamarca having no wins against Alianza Atletico in their last encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.33
FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico attack and defence ratings
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 37.5% | 2.67 | -2.1% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 37.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Alianza Atletico | 36.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.3% |
| No | 21.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cajamarca win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.7% | |
| Loss | 68.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.3% |
| 2-2 | 7.1% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% |
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico stats
FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico recent form
| FC Cajamarca |
LLLLDL |
| Alianza Atletico |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico season so far
FC Cajamarca record
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Alianza Atletico record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Alianza Atletico | FC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 27.6%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.34 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.34 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.43 | 2.83 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.06 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .