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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca

3 – 2 Full time

2′Hernan Lupu
7′Cristian Penilla
21′Arquímedes Figuera
29′Carlos Junior HuertoJoshua Cantt
29′Manuel Ganoza
37′Jose Lujan
37′Manuel Ganoza
59′Luis Arce
63′Guillermo Larios
65′José María IngrattiAriel Muñoz
65′Jairo MolinaJorge del Castillo
68′David CamachoMarlon de Jesús
82′Abdiel ArroyoAdolfo Muñoz
83′Luis ArceDavid Dioses
84′Marcos LliuyaJhosep Nunez
84′Guillermo LariosValentin Robaldo
89′Cristian PenillaFranchesco Flores
90′Francesco Cavagna
90′Anthony Gordillo
90′Ariel Muñoz

Estadio Campeones del 36, SullanaReferee: Junior Rivera, Peru

Alianza Atletico 64%
Draw 21%
UTC Cajamarca 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 8
8 Shots on target 3
57 Possession % 43
5 Corners 2
14 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 5
1 Saves 5
274 Accurate passes 201

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlianza AtleticoDrawUTC Cajamarca
Model78.7%13.8%7.5%
Market58.6%23.7%17.6%
Final63.6%21.3%15.1%
Edge+20.1%-10.0%-10.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Alianza Atletico

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Alianza Atletico below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alianza Atleti ↓ / UTC Cajamarca → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 9% 8% 3 9% 8% 4+ 14% 12%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Alianza Atletico and UTC Cajamarca expected goals

Alianza Atletico 2.94
UTC Cajamarca 0.88

Total expected goals: 3.82

Alianza Atletico and UTC Cajamarca attack and defence ratings

Alianza Atletico

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.06 +6%

UTC Cajamarca

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.48 +48%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca: result vs prediction

Alianza Atletico 3 – 2 UTC Cajamarca

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alianza Atletico 63.6% 1.57 +20.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.6% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.9% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.9% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Alianza Atletico win 59.8% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alianza Atletico63.6%
Draw21.3%
UTC Cajamarca15.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.6%
Under 2.526.4%
Both teams to scoreYes55.9%
No44.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.9%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)36.4%
Handicap -1Alianza Atletico win59.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss21.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.5%
3-09.3%
2-18.3%

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca stats

Alianza Atletico and UTC Cajamarca recent form

newest first
Alianza Atletico WWDWLW
UTC Cajamarca LLLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alianza Atletico and UTC Cajamarca going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alianza Atletico record

  • They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

UTC Cajamarca record

  • They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Alianza Atletico wins 5Draws 1UTC Cajamarca wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-25Alianza AtleticoUTC CajamarcaCopa De La Liga1-1
2026-03-22UTC CajamarcaAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División1-1
2025-08-11Alianza AtleticoUTC CajamarcaPeru Primera División2-0
2025-03-08UTC CajamarcaAlianza AtleticoPeru Primera División0-0
2024-08-01UTC CajamarcaAlianza AtleticoPrimera División1-1
2024-02-16Alianza AtleticoUTC CajamarcaPrimera División2-0
2023-07-14UTC CajamarcaAlianza AtleticoPrimera División1-1
2023-02-12Alianza AtleticoUTC CajamarcaPrimera División2-0
2022-07-18UTC CajamarcaAlianza AtleticoPrimera División2-1
2022-02-12Alianza AtleticoUTC CajamarcaPrimera División1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.6%, draw 23.7%, away 17.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.64 3.75 5.20
1xBet 1.65 4.00 4.57
Bet365 1.57 3.90 5.25
BetVictor 1.57 3.80 5.25
Betano 1.65 4.15 5.70
Betfair 1.55 3.80 5.00
Dafabet 1.62 4.00 5.40
Marathonbet 1.55 3.94 5.55
Pinnacle 1.57 4.00 5.27
SBO 1.55 3.38 4.44
Superbet 1.64 3.70 4.85
Unibet 1.58 3.95 5.60
William Hill 1.62 3.60 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.58 ▼ -0.12
X 3.90 ▲ +0.30
2 5.25 ▲ +0.50

10 snapshots recorded, from .