UTC Cajamarca
vs
Universitario
2 – 4 Full time
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario
| Probability | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Universitario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.0% | 28.0% | 51.0% |
| Market | 26.4% | 28.5% | 45.1% |
| Final | 25.1% | 28.4% | 46.6% |
| Edge | -5.5% | -0.4% | +5.9% |
Why Universitario
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitario below the model: +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UTC Cajamarca and Universitario expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
UTC Cajamarca and Universitario attack and defence ratings
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario: result vs prediction
UTC Cajamarca 2 – 4 Universitario
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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Before and after this match
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 46.6% | 2.15 | +5.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 25.1% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Universitario | 46.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-2 | 10.3% |
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario stats
UTC Cajamarca and Universitario recent form
| UTC Cajamarca |
LLDLDL |
| Universitario |
WWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UTC Cajamarca and Universitario going into this match
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Universitario record
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Universitario | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | UTC Cajamarca | Universitario | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Universitario | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.4%, draw 28.5%, away 45.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.55 | 3.30 | 2.06 |
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 3.46 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.36 | 3.17 | 2.03 |
| Superbet | 3.45 | 3.20 | 2.07 |
| Unibet | 3.60 | 3.35 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .