UTC Cajamarca
vs
Comerciantes Unidos
1 – 3 Full time
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Probability | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.3% | 27.5% | 31.2% |
| Market | 41.0% | 29.7% | 29.3% |
| Final | 41.1% | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -2.2% | +1.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos attack and defence ratings
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos: result vs prediction
UTC Cajamarca 1 – 3 Comerciantes Unidos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 41.1% | 2.44 | +0.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 41.1% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | UTC Cajamarca win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 66.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos stats
UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
| UTC Cajamarca |
LDLDLD |
| Comerciantes Unidos |
LWLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos going into this match
UTC Cajamarca record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Comerciantes Unidos record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Comerciantes Unidos | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Comerciantes Unidos | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | UTC Cajamarca | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 29.7%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.92 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.32 |
| 888Sport | 1.95 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.20 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.10 | 3.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.08 | 3.15 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 2.92 | 2.76 |
| Superbet | 2.32 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Unibet | 2.16 | 3.10 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .