FBC Melgar
vs
Alianza Lima
1 – 1 Full time
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima
| Probability | FBC Melgar | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.2% | 28.7% | 30.1% |
| Market | 45.0% | 30.8% | 24.2% |
| Final | 44.1% | 30.2% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -2.1% | +5.9% |
Why FBC Melgar
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FBC Melgar and Alianza Lima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
FBC Melgar and Alianza Lima attack and defence ratings
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima: result vs prediction
FBC Melgar 1 – 1 Alianza Lima
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
- FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau — team news & stats
- Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal
- Sport Huancayo v UCV Moquegua — match page
- UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos — team news & stats
- Juan Pablo II College vs ADT
- Deportivo Garcilaso v Cusco — match page
- Sport Boys vs Cienciano — team news & stats
- Universitario v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page
Before and after this match
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 44.1% | 2.27 | -3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 44.1% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Alianza Lima | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima stats
FBC Melgar and Alianza Lima recent form
| FBC Melgar |
WLDWWW |
| Alianza Lima |
WDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FBC Melgar and Alianza Lima going into this match
FBC Melgar record
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Lima record
- They have won 15 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Alianza Lima | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Alianza Lima | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-28 | FBC Melgar | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 30.6%, away 24.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.14 | 3.00 | 3.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 2.84 | 3.90 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.13 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 2.85 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 2.84 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 2.77 | 3.92 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 2.97 | 3.33 |
| Superbet | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .