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Peru Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau

4 – 2 Full time

23′Agustin Gomez
30′B. Da Silva
34′Christian Vásquez
45′Xavi Moreno
46′M. Da LuzG. E. Alfaro Martinez
46′D. BarretoA. Fernandez
47′Elsar Rodas
57′F. Castelli
59′Raúl Ruidíaz
68′A. Gonzalez
69′R. RuidiazA. Vasquez
70′K. SandovalA. Ascues
70′B. Da SilvaF. Pacheco
70′F. CastelliC. Olivares
70′P. Lavandeira HernandezE. Correa
75′A. Fernandez
77′E. RodasL. E. Benites Vargas
80′A. Fernandez
89′A. Gonzalez
90′Ignacio Tapia
90′F. ArancibiaS. Ramirez

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, CuscoReferee: Jordi Espinoza, Peru

Deportivo Garcilaso 59%
Draw 26%
Atletico Grau 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

29 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 5
59 Possession % 41
11 Corners 3
10 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 0
3 Saves 6
379 Accurate passes 238

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo GarcilasoDrawAtletico Grau
Model52.4%33.4%14.2%
Market60.9%24.0%15.1%
Final58.7%26.4%14.9%
Edge-8.4%+9.4%-0.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo Garcilaso

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.49.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo Garc ↓ / Atletico Grau → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 20% 1 21% 12% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 80%
2+ goals 51%
3+ goals 24%
No goals 20%

Deportivo Garcilaso and Atletico Grau expected goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1.19
Atletico Grau 0.49

Total expected goals: 1.68

Deportivo Garcilaso and Atletico Grau attack and defence ratings

Deportivo Garcilaso

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.56 -44%

Atletico Grau

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau: result vs prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso 4 – 2 Atletico Grau

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Peru Primera División

Before and after this match

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo Garcilaso 58.7% 1.70 -8.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 76.3% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score No 71.9% 1.39 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.1% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo Garcilaso58.7%
Draw26.4%
Atletico Grau14.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.523.7%
Under 2.576.3%
Both teams to scoreYes28.1%
No71.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.1%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)41.3%
Handicap -1Deportivo Garcilaso win24.3%
Push (exactly one goal)28.2%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-021.1%
0-019.7%
2-013.2%

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau stats

Deportivo Garcilaso and Atletico Grau recent form

newest first
Deportivo Garcilaso WWDWWW
Atletico Grau WWWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo Garcilaso and Atletico Grau going into this match

league record before kick-off

Deportivo Garcilaso record

  • They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Grau record

  • They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

2Deportivo Garcilaso wins 5Draws 0Atletico Grau wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22Atletico GrauDeportivo GarcilasoPeru Primera División0-0
2025-08-06Atletico GrauDeportivo GarcilasoPeru Primera División1-1
2025-02-28Deportivo GarcilasoAtletico GrauPeru Primera División2-0
2024-10-22Atletico GrauDeportivo GarcilasoPrimera División2-2
2024-05-12Deportivo GarcilasoAtletico GrauPrimera División0-0
2023-07-30Atletico GrauDeportivo GarcilasoPrimera División1-1
2023-02-25Deportivo GarcilasoAtletico GrauPrimera División2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.9%, draw 24.3%, away 15.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.60 3.75 5.60
1xBet 1.53 3.85 6.23
Bet365 1.50 3.80 7.00
BetVictor 1.50 3.90 6.00
Betano 1.57 3.65 5.50
Betfair 1.53 3.80 5.00
Dafabet 1.59 3.95 5.80
Marathonbet 1.51 3.85 6.35
Pinnacle 1.54 3.89 5.84
SBO 1.52 3.38 4.73
Superbet 1.57 3.80 5.45
Unibet 1.68 3.55 5.25
William Hill 1.57 3.60 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.52 ▼ -0.33
X 3.85 ▲ +0.60
2 6.12 ▲ +1.71

11 snapshots recorded, from .