Novi Pazar
vs
Mladost Lucani
Garuda Lions Prediction: Novi Pazar
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Novi Pazar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
| Probability | Novi Pazar | Draw | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 31.5% | 20.9% |
| Market | 51.2% | 26.0% | 22.8% |
| Final | 50.3% | 27.4% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +1.4% | -0.5% |
Why Novi Pazar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.77.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 50.3% × 2.00 − 1).
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani match preview
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani face off in a closely contested match, with Novi Pazar holding a 47% probability of winning compared to Mladost Lucani's 24%. The expected goals suggest a stronger offensive performance from Novi Pazar at 1.29, while Mladost Lucani is projected at 0.77. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Novi Pazar, occurring with a 15% probability.
Recent form indicates that Novi Pazar has struggled, with a record of L-W-L-L-D-D, while Mladost Lucani has a mixed form of L-D-L-D-W-L. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows parity, with both teams securing three wins each and four matches ending in draws. The model indicates a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.05
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani attack and defence ratings
Novi Pazar
Mladost Lucani
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novi Pazar | 50.3% | 1.99 | -0.9% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novi Pazar | 50.3% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Mladost Lucani | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.1% |
| No | 59.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novi Pazar win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 0-0 | 14.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani stats
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani recent form
| Novi Pazar |
LWLLDD |
| Mladost Lucani |
LDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani season so far
Novi Pazar record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mladost Lucani record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Mladost Lucani | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Mladost Lucani | Novi Pazar | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mladost Lucani | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Novi Pazar | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-08 | Novi Pazar | Mladost Lucani | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-28 | Mladost Lucani | Novi Pazar | Super Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-20 | Mladost Lucani | Novi Pazar | Super Liga | 1-3 |
| 2024-08-17 | Novi Pazar | Mladost Lucani | Super Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Novi Pazar | Mladost Lucani | Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-23 | Mladost Lucani | Novi Pazar | Super Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 26.0%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.62 | 4.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.43 | 4.18 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .