Radnik Surdulica
vs
OFK Beograd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Radnik Surdulica
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd
| Probability | Radnik Surdulica | Draw | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.5% | 24.8% | 15.8% |
| Market | 41.8% | 27.9% | 30.4% |
| Final | 46.2% | 27.1% | 26.7% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -0.8% | -3.6% |
Why Radnik Surdulica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Radnik Surdulica below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.3% per unit staked (our 46.2% × 2.30 − 1).
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd match preview
Radnik Surdulica hosts OFK Beograd in a Serbia Super Liga matchup with Radnik showing a 48% probability of winning, while OFK Beograd sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Radnik Surdulica's expected goals stand at 1.81, compared to OFK Beograd's 0.83, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form highlights a contrast between the two teams, with Radnik Surdulica recording a mixed W-L-W-L-D-D streak, while OFK Beograd struggles with six games without a win (L-L-D-D-L-L). In their last four encounters, Radnik has secured one victory and the remaining three matches ended in draws, showcasing a competitive history between the teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd attack and defence ratings
Radnik Surdulica
OFK Beograd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radnik Surdulica | 46.2% | 2.16 | +4.4% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radnik Surdulica | 46.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| OFK Beograd | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Radnik Surdulica win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 40.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 11.8% |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd stats
Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd recent form
| Radnik Surdulica |
WLWLDD |
| OFK Beograd |
LLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd season so far
Radnik Surdulica record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
OFK Beograd record
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | OFK Beograd | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | OFK Beograd | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-09 | OFK Beograd | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Radnik Surdulica | OFK Beograd | Serbia Super Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 27.9%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.42 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.22 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.27 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .