Zemun
vs
IMT Novi Beograd
Garuda Lions Prediction: IMT Novi Beograd
0 – 1 Predicted score · 21% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.51.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — IMT Novi Beograd is the favourite, not a value bet.
Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd
| Probability | Zemun | Draw | IMT Novi Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.7% | 33.3% | 52.0% |
| Market | 18.8% | 25.7% | 55.5% |
| Final | 17.8% | 27.6% | 54.6% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +1.9% | -0.9% |
Why IMT Novi Beograd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.67 − 1).
Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd match preview
Zemun faces IMT Novi Beograd in the Serbia Super Liga, with the latter holding a significant advantage in the probabilities at 57% compared to Zemun's 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 21%. Zemun's recent form shows a struggle, with two losses and only one win in their last five matches, while IMT Novi Beograd has had mixed results, including two wins and a draw in their last five outings.
Expected goals suggest a challenging match for Zemun, with an expectation of 0.51 goals compared to IMT Novi Beograd's 1.19. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 24%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 29%. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Zemun has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses against IMT Novi Beograd.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zemun and IMT Novi Beograd expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.70
Zemun and IMT Novi Beograd attack and defence ratings
Zemun
IMT Novi Beograd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IMT Novi Beograd | 54.6% | 1.83 | -0.9% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zemun | 17.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| IMT Novi Beograd | 54.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.8% |
| No | 71.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | IMT Novi Beograd win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.0% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 20.7% |
| 0-0 | 19.4% | |
| 0-2 | 13.0% |
Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd stats
Zemun and IMT Novi Beograd recent form
| Zemun |
LWLLDD |
| IMT Novi Beograd |
DLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zemun and IMT Novi Beograd season so far
Zemun record
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 14 matches.
IMT Novi Beograd record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | IMT Novi Beograd | Zemun | Serbia Super Liga | 4-0 |
| 2021-04-07 | IMT Novi Beograd | Zemun | Prva Liga | 2-0 |
| 2020-10-02 | Zemun | IMT Novi Beograd | Prva Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.8%, draw 25.7%, away 55.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.25 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.13 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.55 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 3.70 | 1.66 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.58 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 4.92 | 3.56 | 1.66 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.40 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .