Nafta
vs
Maribor
2 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | T. Cipot | ||
| 13′ | C. GoncalvesZ. Jevsenak | ||
| 18′ | Z. Karnicnik | ||
| 43′ | C. BumbicO. Rekik | ||
| 45′ | L. Poredos | ||
| 52′ | A. Marosa | ||
| 53′ | A. Dragoner | ||
| 72′ | N. ViherN. Osterc | ||
| 72′ | Z. RepasL. Mlakar | ||
| 72′ | L. ZahovicD. Vizinger | ||
| 73′ | S. OmraniL. Pihler | ||
| 77′ | T. Cipot | ||
| 79′ | A. PihlerA. Ferreira | ||
| 79′ | L. KambicM. Vidnyanszky | ||
| 83′ | M. Vidnyanszky | ||
| 84′ | Z. Karnicnik | ||
| 89′ | Z. Jevsenak | ||
| 90′ | N. Osterc |
Nafta vs Maribor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nafta vs Maribor
| Probability | Nafta | Draw | Maribor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.4% | 30.2% | 40.4% |
| Market | 19.0% | 24.0% | 57.0% |
| Final | 21.6% | 25.5% | 52.9% |
| Edge | +10.4% | +6.2% | -16.6% |
Why Maribor
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nafta and Maribor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Nafta and Maribor attack and defence ratings
Nafta
Maribor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nafta vs Maribor: result vs prediction
Nafta 2 – 3 Maribor
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nafta vs Maribor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 52.9% | 1.89 | -16.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 21.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Maribor | 52.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
Nafta vs Maribor stats
Nafta and Maribor recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nafta and Maribor going into this match
Nafta record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maribor record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Nafta vs Maribor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Nafta vs Maribor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.0%, draw 24.0%, away 57.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.85 | 3.75 | 1.63 |
| 1xBet | 4.97 | 3.82 | 1.57 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 3.85 | 1.64 |
| Marathonbet | 4.90 | 3.82 | 1.55 |
| Pinnacle | 4.86 | 4.01 | 1.62 |
| SBO | 4.27 | 3.52 | 1.54 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .