Garuda Lions
Today
K League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 27

FC Seoul vs Incheon United

1 – 0 Full time

3′Kim Gun-hee
11′Lee Dong-ryulPark Kyung-Sub
45′Son Jeong-BeomMoon Seon-min
45′Park Seong-HunLee Han-do
45′Jung Chi-InGerso Fernandes
57′Stefan MugošaKim Seong-Min
61′Lee Ju-Yong
69′Seo Jae-minKim Young-Whan
69′Lee Chung-YongMorgan Ferrier
72′Patryk KlimalaLeonardo Ruiz
79′Lee Seung-moHwang Do-yoon
89′Gerso Fernandes

Seoul World Cup Stadium, SeoulReferee: Ko Hyung-jin, South Korea

FC Seoul 53%
Draw 26%
Incheon United 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 1
66 Possession % 34
4 Corners 4
2 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 0
1 Saves 6
566 Accurate passes 118

FC Seoul vs Incheon United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Seoul vs Incheon United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC SeoulDrawIncheon United
Model58.7%24.3%17.0%
Market50.9%26.5%22.6%
Final52.8%26.0%21.2%
Edge+7.9%-2.2%-5.7%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Seoul

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Seoul below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Seoul ↓ / Incheon United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

FC Seoul and Incheon United expected goals

FC Seoul 1.87
Incheon United 0.92

Total expected goals: 2.79

FC Seoul and Incheon United attack and defence ratings

FC Seoul

Attack 1.71 +71%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Incheon United

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Seoul vs Incheon United: result vs prediction

FC Seoul 1 – 0 Incheon United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

K League 1

Before and after this match

FC Seoul vs Incheon United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Seoul 52.8% 1.89 +7.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.8% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.8% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.3% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Seoul52.8%
Draw26.0%
Incheon United21.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%
Both teams to scoreYes51.9%
No48.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.8%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)47.2%
Handicap -1FC Seoul win35.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss41.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-010.8%
1-010.5%

FC Seoul vs Incheon United stats

FC Seoul and Incheon United recent form

newest first
FC Seoul WWWWDD
Incheon United DLWDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Seoul and Incheon United going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Seoul record

  • They have won 18 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Incheon United record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Seoul vs Incheon United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5FC Seoul wins 3Draws 2Incheon United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-05FC SeoulIncheon UnitedK League 11-0
2026-02-28Incheon UnitedFC SeoulK League 11-2
2024-07-27Incheon UnitedFC SeoulK League 10-1
2024-05-11Incheon UnitedFC SeoulK League 11-2
2024-03-10FC SeoulIncheon UnitedK League 10-0
2023-07-22FC SeoulIncheon UnitedK League 10-1
2023-06-07Incheon UnitedFC SeoulK League 11-1
2023-02-25FC SeoulIncheon UnitedK League 12-1
2022-08-27Incheon UnitedFC SeoulK League 12-0
2022-06-25FC SeoulIncheon UnitedK League 11-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Seoul vs Incheon United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.2%, draw 26.9%, away 22.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.85 3.45 4.10
1xBet 1.85 3.52 4.13
Bet365 1.80 3.40 4.00
BetVictor 1.83 3.50 4.10
Betano 1.88 3.40 4.05
Betfair 1.91 3.50 3.80
Dafabet 1.95 3.50 4.10
Marathonbet 1.83 3.52 4.15
Pinnacle 1.85 3.73 4.36
SBO 1.84 3.08 3.55
Superbet 1.92 3.40 3.90
Unibet 1.87 3.25 3.60
William Hill 1.83 3.40 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▼ -0.07
X 3.51 ▲ +0.07
2 4.12 ▲ +0.20

9 snapshots recorded, from .