Gwangju FC
vs
FC Seoul
2 – 5 Full time
Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul
| Probability | Gwangju FC | Draw | FC Seoul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.5% | 17.2% | 76.3% |
| Market | 16.3% | 23.2% | 60.6% |
| Final | 13.8% | 21.7% | 64.5% |
| Edge | -9.7% | -6.0% | +15.7% |
Why FC Seoul
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Seoul below the model: +15.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gwangju FC and FC Seoul expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Gwangju FC and FC Seoul attack and defence ratings
Gwangju FC
FC Seoul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul: result vs prediction
Gwangju FC 2 – 5 FC Seoul
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Seoul | 64.5% | 1.55 | +15.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Seoul win | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gwangju FC | 13.8% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| FC Seoul | 64.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Seoul win | 53.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 23.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 15.2% |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | |
| 0-3 | 11.7% |
Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul stats
Gwangju FC and FC Seoul recent form
| Gwangju FC |
DLLDLL |
| FC Seoul |
WWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gwangju FC and FC Seoul going into this match
Gwangju FC record
- They have won 1 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Seoul record
- They have won 18 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Gwangju FC | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-22 | FC Seoul | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 5-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | FC Seoul | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 3-0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Gwangju FC | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-19 | FC Seoul | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.3%, draw 23.2%, away 60.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 6.25 | 3.95 | 1.53 |
| 1xBet | 5.58 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.60 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.20 | 1.59 |
| Marathonbet | 5.70 | 4.10 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 5.99 | 4.17 | 1.54 |
| SBO | 4.94 | 3.56 | 1.50 |
| Unibet | 6.10 | 3.80 | 1.44 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .