AIK Stockholm
vs
Hammarby FF
3 – 2 Full time
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF
| Probability | AIK Stockholm | Draw | Hammarby FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.1% | 27.4% | 47.5% |
| Market | 19.3% | 21.5% | 59.2% |
| Final | 20.8% | 23.0% | 56.2% |
| Edge | +5.8% | +5.8% | -11.7% |
Why Hammarby FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.10.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF attack and defence ratings
AIK Stockholm
Hammarby FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF: result vs prediction
AIK Stockholm 3 – 2 Hammarby FF
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 56.2% | 1.78 | -11.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AIK Stockholm | 20.8% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Hammarby FF | 56.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-2 | 9.4% |
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF stats
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF recent form
| AIK Stockholm |
WWWLDW |
| Hammarby FF |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF going into this match
AIK Stockholm record
- They have won 9 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hammarby FF record
- They have won 11 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Hammarby FF | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Hammarby FF | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | AIK Stockholm | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 21.5%, away 59.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.10 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| 1xBet | 4.82 | 4.33 | 1.59 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 4.80 | 4.30 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 4.90 | 4.33 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 4.74 | 4.44 | 1.59 |
| SBO | 4.58 | 3.90 | 1.49 |
| Unibet | 4.80 | 4.35 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .