IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg Prediction — 23 Aug 2026

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	IFK Goteborg	Draw	IF Elfsborg
Model	21.2%	24.4%	54.4%
Market	35.0%	27.4%	37.6%
Final	31.5%	26.7%	41.8%
Edge	-13.8%	-3.0%	+16.9%

Confidence: Low

Why IF Elfsborg

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.12.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices IF Elfsborg below the model: +16.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

81%

3+ goals

58%

No goals

6%

IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg expected goals

IFK Goteborg

1.12

IF Elfsborg

1.89

Total expected goals: 3.01

IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg attack and defence ratings

IFK Goteborg

Attack

0.98 -2%

Defence

1.21 +21%

IF Elfsborg

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg: result vs prediction

IFK Goteborg 1 – 1 IF Elfsborg

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 18 fixtures

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Before and after this match

IFK Goteborg, previous: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg: odds and pick
IFK Goteborg, next: IFK Goteborg v Orgryte IS analysis
IF Elfsborg, previous: Västra Frölunda – IF Elfsborg, 2026-08-18
IF Elfsborg, next: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF: odds and pick

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	IF Elfsborg	41.8%	2.39	+16.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.73	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	58.2%	1.72	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.3%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	45.6%	2.19	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	IFK Goteborg	31.5%
	Draw	26.7%
	IF Elfsborg	41.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.0%
	Under 2.5	42.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	58.2%
	No	41.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	58.2%
	12 (either side)	73.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	68.5%
Handicap -1	IF Elfsborg win	32.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.3%
	Loss	45.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.5%
	1-2	9.9%
	0-2	8.8%

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg stats

IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg recent form

newest first

IFK Goteborg	LDWLWW
IF Elfsborg	WWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg going into this match

league record before kick-off

IFK Goteborg record

They have won 7 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IF Elfsborg record

They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 19 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0IFK Goteborg wins 0Draws 3IF Elfsborg wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-06	IF Elfsborg	IFK Goteborg	Allsvenskan	2-0
2025-07-28	IF Elfsborg	IFK Goteborg	Allsvenskan	4-3
2025-07-12	IFK Goteborg	IF Elfsborg	Allsvenskan	1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 27.3%, away 37.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.55	3.45	2.55
1xBet	2.69	3.38	2.47
888Sport	2.63	3.25	2.45
Bet365	2.62	3.40	2.60
BetVictor	2.60	3.40	2.40
Betano	2.67	3.30	2.55
Betfair	2.63	3.50	2.40
Dafabet	2.70	3.45	2.55
Marathonbet	2.69	3.38	2.47
Pinnacle	2.77	3.49	2.53
SBO	2.54	3.16	2.38
Superbet	2.67	3.35	2.52
Unibet	2.65	3.45	2.45
William Hill	2.62	3.25	2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.65 ▲ +0.08

X 3.38 ▼ -0.02

2 2.47 ▼ -0.11

3 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-22T08:43:07Z.