Superettan · 2026-09-07T17:05:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 22

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK

0 – 1 Full time

26′			Amar Begić
36′			Hugo Azzi
50′			M. Watson
60′			E. IbrahimbegovicJ. Ortmark
68′			E. OzkanD. Molls
75′			C. EdwardsJ. Masllorens
76′			E. RakipC. Redenstrand
83′			M. WatsonV. Sandberg
83′			K. HolmbergG. Bovalina
83′			M. PalominoA. Stensrud

Behrn Arena, OrebroReferee: Adam Ladeback, Sweden

Orebro SK

33%

Draw

28%

Ostersunds FK

39%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

9	Shots	6
1	Shots on target	1
53	Possession %	47
2	Corners	1

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Orebro SK	Draw	Ostersunds FK
Model	28.7%	29.9%	41.4%
Market	34.2%	27.8%	38.0%
Final	32.8%	28.4%	38.8%
Edge	-5.5%	+2.0%	+3.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Ostersunds FK

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Ostersunds FK below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

90%

2+ goals

71%

3+ goals

43%

No goals

10%

Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK expected goals

Orebro SK

1.07

Ostersunds FK

1.34

Total expected goals: 2.41

Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK attack and defence ratings

Orebro SK

Attack

1.05 +5%

Defence

1.18 +18%

Ostersunds FK

Attack

0.87 -13%

Defence

0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK: result vs prediction

Orebro SK 0 – 1 Ostersunds FK

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 22 fixtures

Superettan

IFK Norrkoping vs Ljungskile SK · 2026-09-04
Osters IF v United Nordic — match page · 2026-09-04
IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS · 2026-09-05
Oddevold v Falkenbergs FF — match page · 2026-09-05
Helsingborg vs Sandviken — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall · 2026-09-05

Before and after this match

Orebro SK, previous: Helsingborg – Orebro SK, 2026-09-01
Orebro SK, next: GIF Sundsvall v Orebro SK analysis
Ostersunds FK, previous: Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK: odds and pick
Ostersunds FK, next: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage: odds and pick

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Ostersunds FK	38.8%	2.58	+3.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	56.7%	1.76	—	—
Both teams to score	No	50.2%	1.99	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	71.6%	1.40	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	58.6%	1.71	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Orebro SK	32.8%
	Draw	28.4%
	Ostersunds FK	38.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43.3%
	Under 2.5	56.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	49.8%
	No	50.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.2%
	12 (either side)	71.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.2%
Handicap -1	Ostersunds FK win	19.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.7%
	Loss	58.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.2%
	0-1	10.7%
	0-0	10.3%

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK stats

Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK recent form

newest first

Orebro SK	DWWDLL
Ostersunds FK	DDWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orebro SK record

They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.

Ostersunds FK record

They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Orebro SK wins 3Draws 3Ostersunds FK wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-11	Ostersunds FK	Orebro SK	Friendlies Clubs	2-4
2026-05-31	Ostersunds FK	Orebro SK	Superettan	3-2
2025-09-13	Orebro SK	Ostersunds FK	Superettan	2-0
2025-07-13	Ostersunds FK	Orebro SK	Friendlies Clubs	0-0
2025-05-24	Ostersunds FK	Orebro SK	Superettan	3-1
2025-03-05	Orebro SK	Ostersunds FK	Friendlies Clubs	3-1
2024-08-02	Orebro SK	Ostersunds FK	Superettan	4-1
2024-05-05	Ostersunds FK	Orebro SK	Superettan	1-1
2023-10-28	Ostersunds FK	Orebro SK	Superettan	4-3
2023-04-09	Orebro SK	Ostersunds FK	Superettan	0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 27.8%, away 38.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.70	3.40	2.45
1xBet	2.72	3.34	2.43
Bet365	2.55	3.20	2.45
BetVictor	2.70	3.40	2.45
Betano	2.72	3.30	2.45
Betfair	2.75	3.50	2.40
Dafabet	2.75	3.40	2.45
Marathonbet	2.72	3.34	2.43
Pinnacle	2.81	3.42	2.51
SBO	2.62	3.19	2.41
Superbet	2.72	3.30	2.45
Unibet	2.65	3.35	2.32
William Hill	2.62	3.10	2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.72 ▲ +0.05

X 3.34 ▼ -0.01

2 2.45 ▲ +0.10

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-01T08:10:01Z.