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Superettan · Full time ·Matchday 23

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage

1 – 1 Full time

40′Curtis Edwards
59′Alex Mortensenmass sise
70′Pontus JonssonGideon Granstrom
70′Anton LundinOzor Victor Okeke
76′Jabir Abdihakim AliMario Palomino
86′Amar Begic
87′Lasse Bruun MadsenJakob Römo Skille
90′Curtis EdwardsMolls Donald Ntchamda
90′Emil ÖzkanJosé Masllorens
90′Jacob Stensson
90′Viktor Frodig

Jamtkraft Arena, OstersundReferee: Rinon Hasani, Sweden

Ostersunds FK 56%
Draw 25%
IK brage 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 2
2 Shots on target 1
70 Possession % 30
14 Corners 2
0 Offsides 0

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOstersunds FKDrawIK brage
Model64.0%23.7%12.4%
Market53.2%25.8%21.0%
Final55.9%25.3%18.9%
Edge+10.8%-2.1%-8.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Ostersunds FK

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ostersunds FK below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ostersunds FK ↓ / IK brage → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 13% 11% 2 13% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Ostersunds FK and IK brage expected goals

Ostersunds FK 1.85
IK brage 0.70

Total expected goals: 2.55

Ostersunds FK and IK brage attack and defence ratings

Ostersunds FK

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.60 -40%

IK brage

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage: result vs prediction

Ostersunds FK 1 – 1 IK brage

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Superettan

Before and after this match

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ostersunds FK 55.9% 1.79 +10.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.1% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score No 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.1% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Ostersunds FK win 38.9% 2.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ostersunds FK55.9%
Draw25.3%
IK brage18.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%
Both teams to scoreYes43.3%
No56.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.1%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)44.1%
Handicap -1Ostersunds FK win38.9%
Push (exactly one goal)25.1%
Loss36.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-013.5%
2-013.4%
1-111.1%

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage stats

Ostersunds FK and IK brage recent form

newest first
Ostersunds FK WDDWDW
IK brage LLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ostersunds FK and IK brage going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ostersunds FK record

  • They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IK brage record

  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Ostersunds FK wins 1Draws 4IK brage wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13IK brageOstersunds FKSuperettan2-4
2025-10-18Ostersunds FKIK brageSuperettan1-0
2025-05-05IK brageOstersunds FKSuperettan0-2
2024-11-09Ostersunds FKIK brageSuperettan1-1
2024-05-12IK brageOstersunds FKSuperettan2-1
2023-09-27Ostersunds FKIK brageSuperettan2-0
2023-05-31IK brageOstersunds FKSuperettan2-1
2022-08-03IK brageOstersunds FKSuperettan1-0
2022-05-15Ostersunds FKIK brageSuperettan1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ostersunds FK vs IK brage odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.2%, draw 25.8%, away 21.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.70 3.80 4.60
1xBet 1.74 3.68 4.42
888Sport 1.75 3.40 4.00
Bet365 1.70 3.50 4.20
BetVictor 1.73 3.60 4.60
Betano 1.72 3.65 4.45
Betfair 1.70 3.60 4.60
Dafabet 1.76 3.60 4.40
Marathonbet 1.72 3.68 4.45
Pinnacle 1.75 3.81 4.60
SBO 1.75 3.39 4.18
Superbet 1.76 3.55 4.30
Unibet 1.81 3.45 3.80
William Hill 1.75 3.40 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▼ -0.09
X 3.60 ▼ -0.02
2 4.41 ▲ +0.71

7 snapshots recorded, from .