Garuda Lions
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Tanzania Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania

2 – 1 Full time

30′M. Daudi
45′Polisi Tanzania
53′A. Jabiri
79′Polisi Tanzania
90′M. Joseph
90′Polisi Tanzania

Lake Tanganyika Stadium, Kigoma

Mashujaa 32%
Draw 29%
Polisi Tanzania 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMashujaaDrawPolisi Tanzania
Model29.5%31.5%39.0%
Market33.3%28.7%38.1%
Final32.3%29.4%38.3%
Edge-3.8%+2.8%+1.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mashujaa ↓ / Polisi Tanzani → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 12% 8% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania expected goals

Mashujaa 1.01
Polisi Tanzania 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.22

Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania attack and defence ratings

Mashujaa

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Polisi Tanzania

Attack 1.43 +43%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania: result vs prediction

Mashujaa 2 – 1 Polisi Tanzania

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Tanzania Premier League

Before and after this match

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Polisi Tanzania 38.3% 2.61 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score No 54.0% 1.85 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.6% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.0% 1.64 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mashujaa32.3%
Draw29.4%
Polisi Tanzania38.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.3%
Under 2.561.7%
Both teams to scoreYes46.0%
No54.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.7%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)67.7%
Handicap -1Polisi Tanzania win17.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss61.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-012.2%
0-111.8%

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania stats

Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania recent form

newest first
Mashujaa WLWLLW
Polisi Tanzania WLLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania going into this match

league record before kick-off

Mashujaa record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Polisi Tanzania record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 28.7%, away 38.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.68 3.11 2.34

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.