Mbeya City
vs
Kagera Sugar
1 – 3 Full time
| 45′ | E. Mvuyekule | ||
| 45′ | Mbeya City | ||
| 61′ | M. Said | ||
| 76′ | Kagera Sugar |
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar
| Probability | Mbeya City | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.3% | 23.3% | 9.4% |
| Market | 53.3% | 27.2% | 19.5% |
| Final | 56.8% | 26.2% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +14.0% | -3.9% | -10.1% |
Why Mbeya City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mbeya City below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar attack and defence ratings
Mbeya City
Kagera Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: result vs prediction
Mbeya City 1 – 3 Kagera Sugar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbeya City | 56.8% | 1.76 | +14.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mbeya City win | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbeya City | 56.8% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Kagera Sugar | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mbeya City win | 40.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 32.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.5% |
| 2-0 | 15.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar stats
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar recent form
| Mbeya City |
LDWWWL |
| Kagera Sugar |
DLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar going into this match
Mbeya City record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kagera Sugar record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-23 | Kagera Sugar | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-17 | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 2-2 |
| 2022-03-12 | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Kagera Sugar | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
| 2021-04-08 | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
| 2020-10-24 | Kagera Sugar | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara | 1-2 |
| 2020-03-04 | Kagera Sugar | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara | 2-3 |
| 2019-10-24 | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 1-4 |
| 2018-05-06 | Kagera Sugar | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
| 2018-01-02 | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 27.2%, away 19.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.28 | 4.99 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.35 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.28 | 4.85 |