Garuda Lions
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Tanzania Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold

4 – 0 Full time

14′H. Msabila
18′D. Mafie
50′Z. Mayombya
80′I. Diomande
90′Pamba Jiji

CCM Kirumba Stadium, Mwanza

Pamba Jiji 34%
Draw 29%
Geita Gold 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPamba JijiDrawGeita Gold
Model28.5%26.8%44.7%
Market35.2%29.9%34.9%
Final33.5%29.1%37.4%
Edge-6.7%-3.1%+9.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Geita Gold

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Geita Gold below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Pamba Jiji ↓ / Geita Gold → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 7% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Pamba Jiji and Geita Gold expected goals

Pamba Jiji 1.25
Geita Gold 1.61

Total expected goals: 2.87

Pamba Jiji and Geita Gold attack and defence ratings

Pamba Jiji

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.58 +58%

Geita Gold

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold: result vs prediction

Pamba Jiji 4 – 0 Geita Gold

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Tanzania Premier League

Before and after this match

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Geita Gold 37.4% 2.68 +9.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.7% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.9% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.3% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Pamba Jiji33.5%
Draw29.1%
Geita Gold37.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%
Both teams to scoreYes58.4%
No41.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.6%
12 (either side)70.9%
X2 (draw or away)66.5%
Handicap -1Geita Gold win23.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss55.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
1-29.3%
0-18.0%

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold stats

Pamba Jiji and Geita Gold recent form

newest first
Pamba Jiji LLLLLD
Geita Gold LLDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Pamba Jiji and Geita Gold going into this match

league record before kick-off

Pamba Jiji record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

Geita Gold record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 29.9%, away 34.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.49 3.00 2.58
Bet365 2.55 3.00 2.55
BetVictor 2.38 2.75 2.40
Betano 2.57 3.00 2.57
Betfair 2.60 3.00 2.55
Dafabet 2.55 3.05 2.65
Marathonbet 2.49 3.00 2.58

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.