Kagera Sugar
vs
Polisi Tanzania
1 – 1 Full time
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania
| Probability | Kagera Sugar | Draw | Polisi Tanzania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.3% | 24.9% | 44.8% |
| Market | 36.6% | 31.0% | 32.4% |
| Final | 35.0% | 29.5% | 35.5% |
| Edge | -6.2% | -6.1% | +12.4% |
Why Polisi Tanzania
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Polisi Tanzania below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kagera Sugar and Polisi Tanzania expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Kagera Sugar and Polisi Tanzania attack and defence ratings
Kagera Sugar
Polisi Tanzania
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania: result vs prediction
Kagera Sugar 1 – 1 Polisi Tanzania
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 35.5% | 2.81 | +12.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kagera Sugar | 35.0% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Polisi Tanzania | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania stats
Kagera Sugar and Polisi Tanzania recent form
| Kagera Sugar |
WDLLLD |
| Polisi Tanzania |
LWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kagera Sugar and Polisi Tanzania going into this match
Kagera Sugar record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
Polisi Tanzania record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-06 | Polisi Tanzania | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Kagera Sugar | Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 2-0 |
| 2022-06-29 | Kagera Sugar | Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
| 2022-02-19 | Polisi Tanzania | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-0 |
| 2021-07-15 | Polisi Tanzania | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 0-1 |
| 2020-12-22 | Kagera Sugar | Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 2-2 |
| 2020-07-18 | Kagera Sugar | Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 1-2 |
| 2020-01-11 | Polisi Tanzania | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 31.0%, away 32.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.11 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 2.88 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 2.81 | 2.80 |