Polisi Tanzania
vs
Pamba Jiji
Garuda Lions Prediction: Polisi Tanzania
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji
| Probability | Polisi Tanzania | Draw | Pamba Jiji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.8% | 18.5% | 12.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 68.8% | 18.5% | 12.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Polisi Tanzania
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji match preview
Polisi Tanzania faces Pamba Jiji in the Tanzania Premier League with a strong probability of victory for the home side, sitting at 69%. The expected goals for Polisi Tanzania are 2.50, while Pamba Jiji is projected to score 1.01, suggesting a likely scoreline of 2-1, which our model predicts at 9%.
Recent form indicates that Polisi Tanzania has had mixed results, with two wins in their last five matches, while Pamba Jiji has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 68%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 59%, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polisi Tanzania and Pamba Jiji expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Polisi Tanzania and Pamba Jiji attack and defence ratings
Polisi Tanzania
Pamba Jiji
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 68.8% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Pamba Jiji | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% |
| No | 40.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win | 47.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 31.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | |
| 1-1 | 8.4% |
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji stats
Polisi Tanzania and Pamba Jiji recent form
| Polisi Tanzania |
LWLLWW |
| Pamba Jiji |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polisi Tanzania and Pamba Jiji season so far
Polisi Tanzania record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Pamba Jiji record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.