Simba
vs
Mashujaa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Simba
2 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Simba vs Mashujaa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Simba vs Mashujaa
| Probability | Simba | Draw | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.8% | 16.7% | 4.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 78.8% | 16.7% | 4.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Simba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Simba vs Mashujaa match preview
Simba enters the match against Mashujaa with a strong recent form, boasting six consecutive wins. The model suggests an 80% probability of a Simba victory, with an expected goals tally of 2.17, indicating a solid offensive performance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring 19% of the time, while there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In contrast, Mashujaa's form has been inconsistent, with a record of three wins and three losses in their last six matches. The model assigns a mere 4% probability of a Mashujaa win and an expected goals figure of only 0.34. Historically, Simba has dominated this matchup, winning both of their last encounters without conceding.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Simba and Mashujaa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Simba and Mashujaa attack and defence ratings
Simba
Mashujaa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Simba vs Mashujaa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 78.8% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Mashujaa | 4.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.0% |
| No | 71.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 54.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 21.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 18.3% |
| 1-0 | 16.0% | |
| 3-0 | 13.4% |
Simba vs Mashujaa stats
Simba and Mashujaa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Simba and Mashujaa season so far
Simba record
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Mashujaa record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Simba vs Mashujaa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Mashujaa | Simba | Tanzania Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Simba | Mashujaa | Tanzania Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.