15 de Agosto
vs
Simba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Simba
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
15 de Agosto vs Simba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 15 de Agosto vs Simba
| Probability | 15 de Agosto | Draw | Simba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.7% | 31.9% | 43.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.7% | 31.9% | 43.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Simba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
15 de Agosto vs Simba match preview
In the upcoming CAF Champions League match, 15 de Agosto faces Simba on October 17, 2026. The model assigns a 25% probability of a win for 15 de Agosto, a 32% chance for a draw, and a 43% likelihood of a victory for Simba. The expected goals for 15 de Agosto stand at 0.87, while Simba has a higher expected goals tally of 1.23, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Recent form shows 15 de Agosto with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Simba boasts an impressive six consecutive wins. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with a 14% probability. Additionally, there is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
15 de Agosto and Simba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
15 de Agosto and Simba attack and defence ratings
15 de Agosto
Simba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
15 de Agosto vs Simba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 15 de Agosto | 24.7% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Simba | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.3% |
| No | 57.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 56.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 13.8% | |
| 0-0 | 13.6% |
15 de Agosto vs Simba stats
15 de Agosto and Simba recent form
| 15 de Agosto |
WWLDWL |
| Simba |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.