Namungo
vs
Mbeya City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Namungo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.80.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Namungo vs Mbeya City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Namungo vs Mbeya City
| Probability | Namungo | Draw | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 28.4% | 18.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.8% | 28.4% | 18.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Namungo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Namungo vs Mbeya City match preview
Namungo is set to face Mbeya City in the Tanzania Premier League, with a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance of occurring. Namungo's recent form shows a mixed bag of results, including two losses in their last six matches, while Mbeya City has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings.
The expected goals for this match indicate Namungo at 1.51 and Mbeya City at 0.80, suggesting a stronger offensive performance from Namungo. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Namungo has secured one win and one draw against Mbeya City, who has yet to win in this matchup. With a confidence grade of C, the match promises to be competitive.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Namungo and Mbeya City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Namungo and Mbeya City attack and defence ratings
Namungo
Mbeya City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Namungo vs Mbeya City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Namungo | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Namungo | 52.8% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Mbeya City | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.3% |
| No | 55.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Namungo win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.3% |
Namungo vs Mbeya City stats
Namungo and Mbeya City recent form
| Namungo |
LWWWLL |
| Mbeya City |
WLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Namungo and Mbeya City season so far
Namungo record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mbeya City record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Namungo vs Mbeya City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Namungo | Mbeya City | Tanzania Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Mbeya City | Namungo | Tanzania Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.