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Venezuela Primera División · ·Clausura - Quadrangular - 1

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello

Garuda Lions Prediction: Puerto Cabello

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Puerto Cabello is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Puerto Cabello

Monumental de Maturín, Maturin

Monagas SC 33%
Draw 28%
Puerto Cabello 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Puerto Cabello wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
56%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonagas SCDrawPuerto Cabello
Model36.9%28.4%34.7%
Market31.5%28.1%40.4%
Final32.9%28.2%39.0%
Edge+1.4%+0.1%-1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (our 39.0% × 2.30 − 1).

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello match preview

Monagas SC faces Puerto Cabello in an intriguing matchup in the Venezuela Primera División. According to our model, Monagas SC has a 34% chance of winning, while Puerto Cabello holds a 38% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams show a decent chance of scoring, with a 56% probability for both teams to find the net and a 50% chance for over 2.5 goals.

Recent form indicates that Monagas SC has had mixed results with two wins and a loss in their last six matches, while Puerto Cabello has also been inconsistent, with two wins and three draws. In their last ten encounters, the teams are evenly matched, with Monagas SC securing three wins, Puerto Cabello also with three, and four matches ending in draws.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monagas SC ↓ / Puerto Cabello → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello expected goals

Monagas SC 1.37
Puerto Cabello 1.32

Total expected goals: 2.68

Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello attack and defence ratings

Monagas SC

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Puerto Cabello

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 1 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Puerto Cabello 39.0% 2.57 -1.4% 2.30
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.2% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.7% 1.79 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.3% 1.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monagas SC32.9%
Draw28.2%
Puerto Cabello39.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.7%
No44.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.0%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)67.1%
Handicap -1Puerto Cabello win16.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss65.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
2-18.4%
1-08.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello stats

Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello recent form

newest first
Monagas SC DWDWWL
Puerto Cabello DWWDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello season so far

league record

Monagas SC record

  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.

Puerto Cabello record

  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Monagas SC wins 4Draws 3Puerto Cabello wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-18Puerto CabelloMonagas SCVenezuela Primera División3-3
2026-04-25Monagas SCPuerto CabelloVenezuela Primera División1-1
2026-03-04Puerto CabelloMonagas SCCONMEBOL Sudamericana0-0
2025-11-04Puerto CabelloMonagas SCVenezuela Primera División3-2
2025-10-21Monagas SCPuerto CabelloVenezuela Primera División1-2
2025-08-06Puerto CabelloMonagas SCCopa Venezuela2-3
2025-08-03Monagas SCPuerto CabelloVenezuela Primera División1-1
2025-07-29Monagas SCPuerto CabelloCopa Venezuela2-0
2025-02-23Puerto CabelloMonagas SCVenezuela Primera División1-0
2024-09-27Monagas SCPuerto CabelloPrimera División2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.5%, draw 28.1%, away 40.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.91 3.10 2.26
Bet365 2.88 3.10 2.25
BetVictor 2.80 3.30 2.25
Betano 2.90 3.25 2.30
Betfair 2.75 3.40 2.30
Dafabet 2.90 3.35 2.29
Marathonbet 2.83 3.10 2.24
Pinnacle 2.91 3.36 2.22
William Hill 2.90 3.10 2.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.18
X 3.25 ▲ +0.11
2 2.26 ▼ -0.05

4 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Puerto Cabello Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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