Deportivo La Guaira
vs
Metropolitanos FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira
2 – 1 Predicted score · 5% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo La Guaira is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC
| Probability | Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Metropolitanos FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.4% | 22.1% | 58.4% |
| Market | 40.4% | 32.2% | 27.4% |
| Final | 35.2% | 29.6% | 35.2% |
| Edge | -5.3% | -2.5% | +7.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.3% per unit staked (our 35.2% × 2.35 − 1).
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC match preview
Deportivo La Guaira faces Metropolitanos FC in an intriguing matchup, with both teams holding a 35% probability of winning according to our model. Deportivo La Guaira's recent form shows a struggle, with their last five matches resulting in one win and four losses, while Metropolitanos FC comes in strong, having won their last five matches. The expected goals suggest a more favorable outcome for Metropolitanos FC, with 2.15 compared to Deportivo La Guaira's 1.19.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Metropolitanos FC, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last four encounters, Deportivo La Guaira has secured 2 wins, while Metropolitanos FC has 1 win and 1 draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC attack and defence ratings
Deportivo La Guaira
Metropolitanos FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 35.2% | 2.84 | -5.3% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 35.2% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Metropolitanos FC | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Guaira win | 7.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.5% | |
| Loss | 80.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% |
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC stats
Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC recent form
| Deportivo La Guaira |
LDLLLW |
| Metropolitanos FC |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC season so far
Deportivo La Guaira record
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Metropolitanos FC record
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Deportivo La Guaira | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Metropolitanos FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Metropolitanos FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-01 | Deportivo La Guaira | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 32.2%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 2.82 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 2.75 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 2.70 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 2.83 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 2.51 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .