Estudiantes de Merida FC
vs
Metropolitanos FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estudiantes de Merida FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 5% model probability
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC
| Probability | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Draw | Metropolitanos FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.7% | 24.2% | 60.1% |
| Market | 46.0% | 31.8% | 22.2% |
| Final | 38.4% | 29.9% | 31.7% |
| Edge | -30.3% | -7.6% | +37.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC match preview
Estudiantes de Merida FC faces Metropolitanos FC in a matchup where the home side has a 36% chance of winning, while Metropolitanos FC holds a slightly lower 34% probability. Recent form shows Estudiantes struggling with a record of L-D-L-L-W-L, contrasting sharply with Metropolitanos' impressive six consecutive wins. The expected goals suggest a challenging game for Estudiantes, with a forecasted 0.86 compared to Metropolitanos' 1.87.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Estudiantes, with a 5% probability. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance that both teams will score. In their last five encounters, Estudiantes has not secured a win, suffering five defeats to Metropolitanos FC.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC attack and defence ratings
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Metropolitanos FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 38.4% | 2.60 | -30.3% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 38.4% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Metropolitanos FC | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estudiantes de Merida FC win | 5.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 10.5% | |
| Loss | 84.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 0-2 | 11.4% | |
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC stats
Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC recent form
| Estudiantes de Merida FC |
LDLLWL |
| Metropolitanos FC |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC season so far
Estudiantes de Merida FC record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Metropolitanos FC record
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Metropolitanos FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Metropolitanos FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Metropolitanos FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-17 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Metropolitanos FC | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-02 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Metropolitanos FC | Primera División | 4-0 |
| 2024-03-16 | Metropolitanos FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-30 | Metropolitanos FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-14 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Metropolitanos FC | Primera División | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 31.3%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 2.88 | 4.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 2.87 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 2.85 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 2.88 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 2.86 | 4.23 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .