Monagas SC
vs
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monagas SC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC
| Probability | Monagas SC | Draw | Estudiantes de Merida FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.8% | 31.3% | 22.9% |
| Market | 43.1% | 28.6% | 28.3% |
| Final | 43.8% | 29.3% | 27.0% |
| Edge | +2.6% | +2.7% | -5.4% |
Why Monagas SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monagas SC below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC match preview
Monagas SC faces Estudiantes de Merida FC in the Venezuela Primera División with Monagas SC holding a 46% probability of winning compared to Estudiantes' 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Monagas SC, with a 14% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest Monagas SC is projected to score 1.29, while Estudiantes de Merida FC is expected to net 0.84.
In terms of recent form, Monagas SC has recorded a mixed set of results with a D-W-W-L-W-L streak, while Estudiantes de Merida FC has struggled, managing only one win in their last six matches (D-L-L-W-L-D). Historical head-to-head results show Monagas SC with 1 win and Estudiantes de Merida FC with 2 wins in their last three encounters, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC attack and defence ratings
Monagas SC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 43.8% | 2.28 | +2.6% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 43.8% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.4% |
| No | 57.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monagas SC win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 14.1% | |
| 0-0 | 13.2% |
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC stats
Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC recent form
| Monagas SC |
DWWLWL |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC |
DLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC season so far
Monagas SC record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes de Merida FC record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Monagas SC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-06 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 28.6%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.14 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.14 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.17 | 3.21 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .