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Venezuela Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 12

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

2 – 1 Full time

11′F. Basante
24′F. Basante
39′C. MagallanJ. Hernandez
41′F. Jaramillo
45′E. Carrion
49′K. De La Hoz
57′A. RomeroS. Asibe
57′E. CarrionL. Rodriguez
65′J. Lobo
69′H. Acosta
69′F. Basante
70′H. DiazS. Natera
70′L. GonzalezA. Romero
73′C. Rodriguez
76′J. LoboA. Montero
76′C. RodriguezR. Chacon
80′F. BasanteA. Rodas
89′J. A. Montilla MaldonadoM. Maldonado
89′D. MatheusY. Lacruz
90′L. Caicedo
90′A. Romero

Referee: M. Rosales

Monagas SC 42%
Draw 29%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonagas SCDrawEstudiantes de Merida FC
Model46.1%31.2%22.7%
Market40.3%28.4%31.3%
Final41.8%29.1%29.1%
Edge+1.4%+0.7%-2.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Monagas SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monagas SC ↓ / Estudiantes de → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 9% 1 14% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC expected goals

Monagas SC 1.30
Estudiantes de Merida FC 0.83

Total expected goals: 2.13

Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC attack and defence ratings

Monagas SC

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: result vs prediction

Monagas SC 2 – 1 Estudiantes de Merida FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monagas SC 41.8% 2.39 +1.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.2% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score No 57.7% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.9% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.9% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monagas SC41.8%
Draw29.1%
Estudiantes de Merida FC29.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.8%
Under 2.564.2%
Both teams to scoreYes42.3%
No57.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.9%
12 (either side)70.9%
X2 (draw or away)58.2%
Handicap -1Monagas SC win22.0%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss53.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.2%
1-114.1%
0-013.2%

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC stats

Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC recent form

newest first
Monagas SC DWWLWL
Estudiantes de Merida FC DLLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Monagas SC record

  • They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estudiantes de Merida FC record

  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Monagas SC wins 3Draws 5Estudiantes de Merida FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19Estudiantes de Merida FCMonagas SCVenezuela Primera División3-2
2025-07-19Monagas SCEstudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División1-0
2025-02-06Estudiantes de Merida FCMonagas SCVenezuela Primera División2-0
2024-11-10Monagas SCEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División2-3
2024-11-03Estudiantes de Merida FCMonagas SCPrimera División2-0
2024-08-22Estudiantes de Merida FCMonagas SCPrimera División2-1
2024-03-01Monagas SCEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División3-2
2023-08-19Estudiantes de Merida FCMonagas SCPrimera División1-1
2023-03-18Monagas SCEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División1-1
2022-07-01Estudiantes de Merida FCMonagas SCPrimera División1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 28.4%, away 31.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.23 3.10 2.96
Bet365 2.20 3.20 2.90
BetVictor 2.25 3.30 2.90
Betano 2.27 3.25 2.92
Betfair 2.20 3.30 2.80
Dafabet 2.27 3.30 2.95
Marathonbet 2.21 3.10 2.88
Pinnacle 2.34 3.15 2.87
William Hill 2.38 3.00 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.30
X 3.20 ▼ -0.10
2 2.90 ▼ -0.48

12 snapshots recorded, from .