Puerto Cabello
vs
Monagas SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Puerto Cabello
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC
| Probability | Puerto Cabello | Draw | Monagas SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.2% | 32.3% | 22.5% |
| Market | 45.8% | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| Final | 45.6% | 28.9% | 25.4% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +4.5% | -3.9% |
Why Puerto Cabello
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.79.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC match preview
Puerto Cabello hosts Monagas SC in the Venezuela Primera División with a projected probability of 45% for a home win, 32% for a draw, and 23% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which has a 15% likelihood. Expected goals are calculated at 1.23 for Puerto Cabello and 0.79 for Monagas SC, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.
Recent form shows Puerto Cabello with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Monagas SC has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. In their last six encounters, Puerto Cabello has not lost to Monagas SC, securing three wins and three draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.01
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC attack and defence ratings
Puerto Cabello
Monagas SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.6% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 45.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Monagas SC | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.8% |
| No | 60.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 0-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC stats
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC recent form
| Puerto Cabello |
WWDLDD |
| Monagas SC |
WDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC season so far
Puerto Cabello record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monagas SC record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-06 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-03 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Copa Venezuela | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-27 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 27.2%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.20 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.35 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.36 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.15 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .