USM Alger
vs
JS Saoura
Garuda Lions Prediction: USM Alger
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
USM Alger vs JS Saoura overview
Garuda Lions analysis: USM Alger vs JS Saoura
| Probability | USM Alger | Draw | JS Saoura |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 31.6% | 21.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.6% | 31.6% | 21.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why USM Alger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.79.
USM Alger vs JS Saoura match preview
USM Alger is set to face JS Saoura in the Algeria Ligue 1, with kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. The model indicates a 50% probability of a USM Alger victory, while a draw stands at 29% and JS Saoura at 21%. The expected goals for USM Alger are 1.48 compared to JS Saoura's 0.86, suggesting a potential edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, USM Alger has recorded two wins and four draws in their last six matches, while JS Saoura has one win, two losses, and three draws in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last two encounters, USM Alger has not secured a win, with JS Saoura winning both matches. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of USM Alger, occurring at a rate of 13%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
USM Alger and JS Saoura expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
USM Alger and JS Saoura attack and defence ratings
USM Alger
JS Saoura
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
USM Alger vs JS Saoura markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USM Alger | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USM Alger | 46.6% |
| Draw | 31.6% | |
| JS Saoura | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.6% |
| No | 59.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | USM Alger win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.1% | |
| 0-0 | 14.0% |
USM Alger vs JS Saoura stats
USM Alger vs JS Saoura head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | USM Alger | JS Saoura | Algeria Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | JS Saoura | USM Alger | Algeria Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.