ASO Chlef
vs
MC Alger
Garuda Lions Prediction: MC Alger
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
ASO Chlef vs MC Alger overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ASO Chlef vs MC Alger
| Probability | ASO Chlef | Draw | MC Alger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.2% | 26.4% | 59.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.2% | 26.4% | 59.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why MC Alger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
ASO Chlef vs MC Alger match preview
ASO Chlef faces MC Alger in an Algeria Ligue 1 matchup on October 13, 2026. According to our model, ASO Chlef has a 14% probability of winning, while MC Alger stands at 59%, with a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance. ASO Chlef's recent form shows a struggle, with six consecutive losses, while MC Alger has a mixed record of two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches.
The expected goals for ASO Chlef is 0.69, in contrast to MC Alger's 1.64. Both teams are predicted to score in 41% of the scenarios, and there is also a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The head-to-head record indicates that ASO Chlef has yet to secure a win against MC Alger, who has one victory and one draw in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ASO Chlef and MC Alger expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
ASO Chlef and MC Alger attack and defence ratings
ASO Chlef
MC Alger
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
ASO Chlef vs MC Alger markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MC Alger | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ASO Chlef | 14.2% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| MC Alger | 59.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.2% |
| No | 58.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | MC Alger win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-2 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
ASO Chlef vs MC Alger stats
ASO Chlef vs MC Alger head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | MC Alger | ASO Chlef | Algeria Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-09 | ASO Chlef | MC Alger | Algeria Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.