River Plate
vs
Velez Sarsfield
2 – 2 Full time
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield
| Probability | River Plate | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.3% | 35.5% | 36.2% |
| Market | 56.4% | 27.3% | 16.4% |
| Final | 49.4% | 29.3% | 21.3% |
| Edge | -28.0% | +8.2% | +19.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
River Plate and Velez Sarsfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
River Plate and Velez Sarsfield attack and defence ratings
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield: result vs prediction
River Plate 2 – 2 Velez Sarsfield
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
- Aldosivi v Union Santa Fe — match page
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats
- Gimnasia L.P. vs Gimnasia M.
- Atletico Tucuman v Instituto Cordoba — match page
- Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats
- Huracan vs Deportivo Riestra
- Newells Old Boys v Banfield — match page
- Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats
Before and after this match
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | River Plate | 49.4% | 2.03 | -28.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | River Plate | 49.4% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Velez Sarsfield | 21.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.3% |
| No | 63.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | River Plate win | 9.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 71.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.9% |
| 0-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.6% |
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield stats
River Plate and Velez Sarsfield recent form
| River Plate |
DWLLLL |
| Velez Sarsfield |
DDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
River Plate and Velez Sarsfield going into this match
River Plate record
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Velez Sarsfield | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Velez Sarsfield | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-04 | River Plate | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.3%, draw 27.3%, away 16.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.91 |
| 888Sport | 1.67 | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.40 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.55 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 3.35 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.44 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.52 | 6.33 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 3.23 | 4.84 |
| Superbet | 1.72 | 3.45 | 5.60 |
| Unibet | 1.67 | 3.45 | 5.75 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.30 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .