Garuda Lions
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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Round of 16

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes

1 – 1 Full time

Atlanta 46%
Draw 31%
CA Estudiantes 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlantaDrawCA Estudiantes
Model57.1%25.7%17.1%
Market42.3%32.8%24.9%
Final46.0%31.1%23.0%
Edge+3.7%-1.8%-1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atlanta

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atlanta below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlanta ↓ / CA Estudiantes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes expected goals

Atlanta 1.74
CA Estudiantes 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.59

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes attack and defence ratings

Atlanta

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.01 +1%

CA Estudiantes

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes: result vs prediction

Atlanta 1 – 1 CA Estudiantes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 16 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlanta 46.0% 2.17 +3.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.1% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score No 51.5% 1.94 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.9% 2.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlanta46.0%
Draw31.1%
CA Estudiantes23.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%
Both teams to scoreYes48.5%
No51.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.0%
12 (either side)68.9%
X2 (draw or away)54.0%
Handicap -1Atlanta win32.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.3%
Loss42.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
1-011.9%
2-011.3%

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes stats

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes recent form

newest first
Atlanta DWLWWW
CA Estudiantes LDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlanta record

  • They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

CA Estudiantes record

  • They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Atlanta wins 1Draws 4CA Estudiantes wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-06-19AtlantaCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional3-2
2023-02-11CA EstudiantesAtlantaPrimera Nacional2-0
2022-09-03AtlantaCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional1-0
2021-10-30AtlantaCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional1-0
2021-07-05CA EstudiantesAtlantaPrimera Nacional2-1
2021-01-24CA EstudiantesAtlantaPrimera Nacional1-0
2020-12-19CA EstudiantesAtlantaPrimera Nacional3-3
2019-10-29CA EstudiantesAtlantaPrimera Nacional1-2
2019-03-09CA EstudiantesAtlantaPrimera B Metropolitana3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 32.8%, away 24.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.09 2.75 3.79
Bet365 2.20 2.80 3.70
BetVictor 2.15 2.90 3.75
Betano 2.25 2.85 3.55
Betfair 2.15 2.80 3.60
Dafabet 2.20 2.90 3.70
Marathonbet 2.07 2.75 3.68
Pinnacle 2.22 2.91 3.99
SBO 2.05 2.70 3.42
William Hill 2.20 2.70 3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.17 ▲ +0.30
X 2.80 ▼ -0.19
2 3.69 ▼ -0.62

10 snapshots recorded, from .