Deportivo Moron
vs
Colegiales
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Moron
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Moron is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales
| Probability | Deportivo Moron | Draw | Colegiales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.3% | 33.4% | 31.3% |
| Market | 47.4% | 31.4% | 21.1% |
| Final | 44.4% | 31.9% | 23.7% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +0.5% | +2.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 1.96 − 1).
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales match preview
Deportivo Moron faces Colegiales in their upcoming Primera Nacional match, with probabilities indicating a 35% chance of a home win for Moron, a 33% likelihood of a draw, and a 31% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Deportivo Moron, occurring with a 13% probability. The expected goals for this match are 1.05 for Deportivo Moron and 0.97 for Colegiales.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Moron has recorded a mixed performance with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Colegiales has shown more consistency, with four wins and two draws in the same period. The model suggests a 33% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Moron and Colegiales expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Deportivo Moron and Colegiales attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Moron
Colegiales
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 44.4% | 2.25 | -3.0% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 44.4% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Colegiales | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.7% |
| No | 58.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Moron win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales stats
Deportivo Moron and Colegiales recent form
| Deportivo Moron |
WLLLWL |
| Colegiales |
DDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Moron and Colegiales season so far
Deportivo Moron record
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Colegiales record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-12 | Deportivo Moron | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-0 |
| 2016-09-26 | Colegiales | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-2 |
| 2015-11-08 | Colegiales | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-1 |
| 2015-06-21 | Deportivo Moron | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-0 |
| 2014-04-13 | Deportivo Moron | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 2-0 |
| 2013-10-12 | Colegiales | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-0 |
| 2013-03-20 | Deportivo Moron | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-2 |
| 2012-10-01 | Colegiales | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-2 |
| 2012-05-12 | Colegiales | Deportivo Moron | Primera B Metropolitana | 3-0 |
| 2011-12-04 | Deportivo Moron | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 31.4%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 2.91 | 4.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.05 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 2.90 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 2.91 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.01 | 4.71 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 2.63 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .