Ferro Carril Oeste
vs
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ferro Carril Oeste is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
| Probability | Ferro Carril Oeste | Draw | Gimnasia Y Tiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 34.5% | 25.4% |
| Market | 59.1% | 26.8% | 14.1% |
| Final | 54.4% | 28.7% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +1.9% | +2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (our 54.4% × 1.60 − 1).
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro match preview
Ferro Carril Oeste faces Gimnasia Y Tiro in an upcoming Primera Nacional match, with our model giving Ferro a 40% chance of winning, while a draw is at 34% and Gimnasia Y Tiro at 25%. The expected goals for Ferro Carril Oeste stand at 1.07 compared to Gimnasia Y Tiro's 0.79, suggesting a slight advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 15%.
In terms of recent form, Ferro Carril Oeste has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Gimnasia Y Tiro has two wins, one draw, and two losses in the same period. Historically, in their last two encounters, Ferro Carril Oeste has one win and one draw against Gimnasia Y Tiro, who has yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro attack and defence ratings
Ferro Carril Oeste
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 54.4% | 1.84 | -4.8% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 54.4% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.2% |
| No | 62.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.9% |
| 1-0 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro stats
Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro recent form
| Ferro Carril Oeste |
DLWDLW |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro |
LLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Gimnasia Y Tiro season so far
Ferro Carril Oeste record
- They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia Y Tiro record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Ferro Carril Oeste | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.1%, draw 26.8%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 3.44 | 6.53 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.30 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.35 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 3.55 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 3.44 | 6.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 3.57 | 7.23 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.15 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.40 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .