Gimnasia Jujuy
vs
Almirante Brown
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia Jujuy
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gimnasia Jujuy is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown
| Probability | Gimnasia Jujuy | Draw | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 26.3% | 30.9% |
| Market | 50.1% | 28.8% | 21.1% |
| Final | 48.3% | 28.2% | 23.5% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -0.6% | +2.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 1.88 − 1).
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown match preview
Gimnasia Jujuy faces Almirante Brown in a Primera Nacional clash, with Gimnasia Jujuy holding a 48% probability of winning compared to 24% for Almirante Brown and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Gimnasia Jujuy stand at 1.63, while Almirante Brown is projected to score 1.36. Recent form shows Gimnasia Jujuy with two losses and a win in their last five matches, while Almirante Brown has one win and two draws in the same timeframe.
Historically, Gimnasia Jujuy has a strong advantage in their last nine encounters, securing six wins against Almirante Brown's two, alongside one draw. The model indicates a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Gimnasia Jujuy, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia Jujuy
Almirante Brown
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 48.3% | 2.07 | -1.8% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 48.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Almirante Brown | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Jujuy win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown stats
Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown recent form
| Gimnasia Jujuy |
LLWDLD |
| Almirante Brown |
LWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown season so far
Gimnasia Jujuy record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almirante Brown record
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 19 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-24 | Almirante Brown | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-29 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2014-03-24 | Almirante Brown | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional | 1-3 |
| 2013-09-21 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2013-03-24 | Almirante Brown | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2012-09-23 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2012-05-26 | Almirante Brown | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2011-11-27 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.1%, draw 28.8%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.08 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.86 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.08 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.35 | 4.64 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 2.90 | 3.78 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .