Colon Santa Fe
vs
Midland
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colon Santa Fe
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.75.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Colon Santa Fe is the favourite, not a value bet.
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colon Santa Fe vs Midland
| Probability | Colon Santa Fe | Draw | Midland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 29.9% | 18.9% |
| Market | 47.0% | 30.6% | 22.4% |
| Final | 48.1% | 30.4% | 21.5% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.2% | -0.9% |
Why Colon Santa Fe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 48.1% × 2.00 − 1).
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland match preview
Colon Santa Fe faces Midland in the Primera Nacional with a projected win probability of 48% for Colon, while Midland stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 15% probability. Colon Santa Fe's expected goals are 1.40, compared to Midland's 0.75, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Colon Santa Fe has recorded two wins, two draws, and a recent win, while Midland's form shows a draw, a win, a loss, another win, a draw, and a loss. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals sit at 37%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring is at 41%. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colon Santa Fe and Midland expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.16
Colon Santa Fe and Midland attack and defence ratings
Colon Santa Fe
Midland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 48.1% | 2.08 | +1.0% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 48.1% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Midland | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.2% |
| No | 58.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colon Santa Fe win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.8% |
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland stats
Colon Santa Fe and Midland recent form
| Colon Santa Fe |
WWDDWD |
| Midland |
DWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colon Santa Fe and Midland season so far
Colon Santa Fe record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Midland record
- They have won 15 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Colon Santa Fe vs Midland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 30.6%, away 22.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 2.92 | 4.27 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.05 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 2.92 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.16 | 4.36 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 2.78 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .