Deportivo Madryn
vs
Deportivo Maipu
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Madryn
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.56.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Madryn is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu
| Probability | Deportivo Madryn | Draw | Deportivo Maipu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.2% | 28.1% | 12.7% |
| Market | 54.0% | 28.0% | 18.0% |
| Final | 55.3% | 28.0% | 16.7% |
| Edge | +1.3% | +0.0% | -1.3% |
Why Deportivo Madryn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.56.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 55.3% × 1.75 − 1).
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu match preview
Deportivo Madryn hosts Deportivo Maipu in a Primera Nacional clash with a significant edge in probabilities favoring the home side. Our model gives Deportivo Madryn a 59% chance of winning, while Deportivo Maipu stands at 15%. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Deportivo Madryn, projected at 1.50, compared to just 0.56 for Deportivo Maipu. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 18% probability.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Madryn has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Deportivo Maipu has a slightly better run with three wins, two draws, and one loss. Historically, the last ten encounters show a competitive edge for Deportivo Maipu with four wins, compared to three for Deportivo Madryn and three draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Maipu
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Madryn | 55.3% | 1.81 | +1.3% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Madryn | 55.3% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Deportivo Maipu | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.3% |
| No | 65.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.1% |
| 2-0 | 14.3% | |
| 0-0 | 13.9% |
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu stats
Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu recent form
| Deportivo Madryn |
WWDLWD |
| Deportivo Maipu |
DWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu season so far
Deportivo Madryn record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Deportivo Maipu record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo Maipu | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Deportivo Madryn | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-25 | Deportivo Maipu | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-13 | Deportivo Madryn | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 2-3 |
| 2022-08-27 | Deportivo Maipu | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2021-01-31 | Deportivo Maipu | Deportivo Madryn | Torneo Federal A | 2-0 |
| 2021-01-10 | Deportivo Maipu | Deportivo Madryn | Torneo Federal A | 3-0 |
| 2020-02-09 | Deportivo Maipu | Deportivo Madryn | Torneo Federal A | 1-4 |
| 2019-09-15 | Deportivo Madryn | Deportivo Maipu | Torneo Federal A | 3-0 |
| 2015-08-02 | Deportivo Madryn | Deportivo Maipu | Torneo Federal A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.0%, draw 28.0%, away 18.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.28 | 4.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.10 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.25 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.28 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.46 | 5.32 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.20 | 4.57 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .