San Miguel
vs
Deportivo Madryn
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Madryn
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn
| Probability | San Miguel | Draw | Deportivo Madryn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.9% | 26.4% | 57.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 15.9% | 26.4% | 57.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Deportivo Madryn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn match preview
San Miguel faces Deportivo Madryn in a Primera Nacional clash, with the model indicating a 16% chance of a San Miguel victory, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 58% probability for an away win for Deportivo Madryn. The expected goals suggest San Miguel will score 0.76, while Deportivo Madryn is forecasted to net 1.66, making a 0-1 scoreline the most probable outcome at 14%.
Recent form shows San Miguel struggling with a record of L-D-L-L-D-D, while Deportivo Madryn has found some momentum with W-D-L-W-D-W. In their last three encounters, San Miguel has not secured a win, recording 2 draws and 1 defeat against Deportivo Madryn. The model's confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn attack and defence ratings
San Miguel
Deportivo Madryn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Godoy Cruz vs Almirante Brown
- Chacarita Juniors v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano — team news & stats
- San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy
- Agropecuario v Almagro — match page
- All Boys vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato
- Deportivo Moron v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page
Before and after this match
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Madryn | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Miguel | 15.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Deportivo Madryn | 57.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.3% |
| No | 55.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | |
| 0-2 | 12.2% |
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn stats
San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn recent form
| San Miguel |
LDLLDD |
| Deportivo Madryn |
WDLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn season so far
San Miguel record
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Deportivo Madryn record
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Deportivo Madryn | San Miguel | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-05 | San Miguel | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Deportivo Madryn | San Miguel | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.