Gimnasia Y Tiro
vs
Quilmes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia Y Tiro
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes
| Probability | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Draw | Quilmes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 31.4% | 20.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.5% | 31.4% | 20.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gimnasia Y Tiro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.74.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes match preview
Gimnasia Y Tiro faces Quilmes in the Primera Nacional with a forecasted probability of 57% for a Gimnasia Y Tiro victory, while a draw stands at 29% and Quilmes at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at an 18% probability. Expected goals suggest Gimnasia Y Tiro will score 1.44, compared to Quilmes' 0.60, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Gimnasia Y Tiro has recorded a sequence of W-D-L-W-L-D, while Quilmes shows a mixed form with W-L-L-D-W-L. The last three head-to-head encounters have seen Gimnasia Y Tiro secure 1 win, alongside 1 draw and 1 win for Quilmes. The confidence grade for this match stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Quilmes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Godoy Cruz vs Almirante Brown
- Chacarita Juniors v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano — team news & stats
- San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy
- Agropecuario v Almagro — match page
- All Boys vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato
- Deportivo Moron v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page
Before and after this match
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 48.5% |
| Draw | 31.4% | |
| Quilmes | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.4% |
| No | 60.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Y Tiro win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes stats
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes recent form
| Gimnasia Y Tiro |
LWDLWL |
| Quilmes |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Quilmes season so far
Gimnasia Y Tiro record
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Quilmes record
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 19 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Quilmes | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Quilmes | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.