Quilmes
vs
San Martin Tucuman
Garuda Lions Prediction: Quilmes
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Quilmes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman
| Probability | Quilmes | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 31.4% | 29.2% |
| Market | 46.0% | 29.2% | 24.8% |
| Final | 44.3% | 29.7% | 25.9% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.6% | +1.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (our 44.3% × 2.07 − 1).
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman match preview
Quilmes will face San Martin Tucuman in their upcoming Primera Nacional match, with Quilmes holding a 40% probability of victory compared to 27% for San Martin Tucuman, while a draw stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Quilmes, with an expected goals tally of 1.13 for Quilmes and 0.89 for San Martin Tucuman.
In terms of recent form, Quilmes has recorded two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches, while San Martin Tucuman has experienced a mixed run with two wins, three losses, and one draw. Historically, the last three encounters between these teams have seen Quilmes win none, with two draws and one victory for San Martin Tucuman.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Quilmes
San Martin Tucuman
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 44.3% | 2.26 | -1.6% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 44.3% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Quilmes win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.1% | |
| 1-0 | 11.8% |
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman stats
Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman recent form
| Quilmes |
LLDWLW |
| San Martin Tucuman |
WLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman season so far
Quilmes record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Martin Tucuman record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | San Martin Tucuman | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | San Martin Tucuman | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-26 | Quilmes | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 29.2%, away 25.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.05 | 3.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.13 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.15 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.25 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.05 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.17 | 3.84 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 2.80 | 3.18 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .